There’s been quite a bit of media spin on “how Trump won.” Here are the simple facts based on the exit survey data used by almost every major network.
Something to consider: how do the facts square with the reporting you hear from your sources? Are you getting the truth or an echo chamber?
Here are a few tidbits from the table below that so far I have not seen emphasized in the media (“R” and “D” are Republican / Democrat):
- Race: R had less support from Whites (by 1%) but D lost even more; R had much more support from Blacks and Hispanics
- Religion: the biggest R gains were among Hispanic Catholics and people of non-Christian faiths
- Overall: from 2012 to 2016, D lost support in every group (Race, Gender, Religion) other than Jews and Mormons.
A comparison of US Presidential Election Demographics, 2012 vs 2016
Group | 2012 | 2016 | Change (pct) | D chg (pct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 59/39 +20 | 58/37 +21 | +1 | -2 |
| Black | 6/93 -87 | 8/88 -80 | +7 | -5 |
| Hispanic | 27/71 -44 | 29/65 -36 | +8 | -6 |
| Women | 44/55 -11 | 42/54 -12 | -1 | -1 |
| Men* | +7 | 53/41 +12 | +5 | |
| Protestant | 57/42 +15 | 58/39 +18 | +3 | -3 |
| Catholic | 48/50 -2 | 52/45 +7 | +9 | -5 |
| (White Catholic) | 59/40 +19 | 60/37 +23 | +4 | -3 |
| (Hispanic Catholic) | 21/75 -54 | 26/67 -41 | +13 | -8 |
| Jewish | 30/69 -39 | 24/71 -47 | -8 | +2 |
| Other Faith | 23/74 -51 | 29/62 -33 | +18 | -12 |
| No Affiliation | 26/70 -44 | 26/68 -42 | +2 | -2 |
| White Evangelical | 78/21 +57 | 81/16 +65 | +8 | -5 |
| Mormon | 78/21 +57 | 61/25 +36 | -21 | +4 |
All numbers in the first two columns are: R%/D% +/- % difference
*2012 details not provided for men
Sources:
How the faithful voted (Pew Research)
Behind Trump’s victory (Pew Research, Edison Exit Poll for National Election Pool: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, AP)